Early updates on 2024 Democratic primary

Analysis and Opinion by Russ Stewart

This week it’s going to be mostly gossip and trivia because people love that stuff, with some early political predictions thrown in.

Countywide voters, who will not number more than 500,000, will get to choose between Kim Foxx 2.0 (Clayton Harris) and Kim Foxx 1.5 (Eileen O’Neill Burke).

With all the consequential stuff going on in the world, and the prospect of a Biden-Trump rerun, the question of who gets nominated and/or elected Clerk of Circuit Court, MWRD commissioner (4), state legislator and Chicago ward committeeperson is trivial. 2024 will be a snoozer primary, much like 2012, with the main event on Nov. 5 a definite non-snoozer.

With March 19 about 50 days away, here are my early predictions: The turnout in 2012’s presidential-year primary (D) was 616,661. It will be about 500,000 this year, about 20 percent of registered voters (RVs). Harris will defeat Burke for Foxx’s job, even though both are running vapid, insipid campaigns. Internal polls show neither cracking 35 percent, with 40 percent undecided. Both are largely unknown. For Clerk of Circuit Court Mariyana Spyropoulos will beat incumbent Iris Martinez. For the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District (MWRD) all four incumbents (D) – Kari Steele, Marcelino Garcia, Dan (Pogo) Pogorzelski and Precious Brady-Davis – will win. For the IL Supreme Court vacancy (1st District), appointed justice Joy Cunningham will defeat Jesse Reyes by 60/40.

All the winners would be the slated party candidates. The county Democrats charged 18 candidates (including judges) $45,000 each for the privilege of being slated, a total rake-in of $810,000. That will be used for 4 countywide mailings to the 1.1 million hardcore Democratic RVs in 600,000 households, with media and digital ads and other efforts. The mailers/ads will use anti-Trump rhetoric: STOP TRUMP by voting for these Democrats, because they will make it all better. The lower the turnout the more likely Machine-backed candidates win. Like in 2012, with an unopposed incumbent president and no statewide contests, casual voter interest dwindles.

It was 616,661 in 2012 but spiked to 1,422,337 in 2016 with Clinton-Sanders and Foxx-Alvarez on the ballot and 1,016,383-in 2020 with a Biden race and Foxx-Conway and 4 Clerk candidates.  

In the 20th IL Senate district, due to IL Senate president Don Harmon’s infusion of over $400,000, appointed incumbent Natalie Toro will win by a couple hundred votes over Woke/Leftist Gabriela Guzman and pharmacist/farmer Dave Nayak. Polling shows all bunched around 30 percent. Turnout will be about 17,000 districtwide. There will be three closely-watched committeeperson (D) contests.

In the 45TH WARD (Portage Park, Jefferson Park, Gladstone Park, west Edgebrook/Wildwood), where the much-detested but slightly more beloved alderman Jim Gardiner is not on the ballot for committeeperson, which he won by 292 votes in 2020. The issue is party-building. Frontrunner Michael Rabbitt wants to build a progressive party, beat Trump on Nov. 5 and take out Gardiner in 2027. Moderate Joe Cook wants diversity and inclusion, meaning not just Woke/Leftists. Cook already has billboards up on Milwaukee Avenue.

In the 33RD WARD (south Albany Park, Ravenswood Manor along the River and north Logan Square), “democratic socialist” alderwoman Rossana Rodriguez Sanchez is challenging Iris Martinez. Sanchez easily defeated Martinez’s aldermanic choice in 2023, winning 54.7 percent. With her cadre of committed comrades energized in supporting congresswoman Delia Ramirez (D-3), Guzman and herself, there is no doubt Sanchez will win.

In the 32ND WARD (Wicker Park, Bucktown) alderman Scott Waguespack bungled his attempt to hand-off the committeeperson (D) post. Now he’s running as a write-in and needs 1,000 votes. Then he’ll resign as committeeperson and quit as alderman in 2027.

STATE’S ATTORNEY: Foxx will soon be gone and forgotten, but neither Harris nor Burke seem inclined to want to eradicate her most reviled legacy – namely, the elimination of cash bail for all misdemeanor and most non-violent felonies.

Burke, a retired Appellate Court justice and former ASA (prosecutor) in the office, has been quoted as saying that the “economic viability of Chicago is on the ballot” in 2024 and that she is running because of “rising crime rates.” She wants to resume prosecution of retail theft under $1,000, which was suspended by Foxx, That sounds very non-Woke/Leftist and somewhat law-and-orderish.

But her own web page promises “thoughtful reform” and advocates so-called  “restorative justice” and “safety and fairness” and says that she “will not be jailing” arrested people “because they are poor or mentally ill.” Sounds a lot like Foxx. Or maybe it’s just something you have to say to get elected in these times. The solution, Burke’s website said, is “more resources.” It’s always more resources.

Restorative justice rejects the concept of REAL punishment for criminal behavior. No more “if you commit the crime, you do the time” stuff. Jails are a relic of the past. Under RJ there is a mediation meeting between the perp and the victim guided by a mediator at which the victim explains the “harm” he/she has suffered due to the crime. The criminal then apologizes, pays some monetary restitution,  avoids incarceration, and becomes a model citizen. The crime problem is solved. Burke is running from both the Right and the Left, and blatant equivocation never turns out well.

Ballotpedia stated that both Burke and Harris want to “build on Foxx’s policies,” which in part contributed to Chicago’s spike in carjackings, gun violence and retail theft; and they want to “improve relationships between police and prosecutors.” What a novel idea. I’m sure putting perps in jail after arrest and keeping them there for awhile would do the trick.

Harris, a University of Chicago professor, ex-ASA and ex-Lyft executive, has been quoted as saying that he is “the bridge, the evolution of what has been going on and we’re going to move forward to ensure that our communities feel safe.” What did he just say? Harris did promise to create a “special prosecutions unit” to focus on carjackings, firearms and retail theft. Better late than never.

Foxx, then a top aide to Toni Preckwinkle, beat the disgraced Anita Alvarez 645,758-314,594 in 2016, getting 58.3 percent. Alvarez became toxic after her cover-up role in the Laquan McDonald murder was exposed. She was crushed in the Black wards, the Black south suburbs, the White “progressive” Lakefront and the North Shore suburbs. In 2020 Foxx was opposed by Bill Conway, the White son of a multi-millionaire venture capitalist. Conway tried to equivocate, posturing as a “progressive” while trying to build a majority among Whites. He got crushed, losing 447,974-276,341 to Foxx, getting 30.1 percent in as Foxx replicated her 2016 coalition. 

Foxx fatigue became evident by 2022 and she realized that even with her Black/Woke White coalition she would have a difficult path to a third term in 2024, so she bailed in 2023. The Democrats in Chicago and Cook County are adherents to identity politics and entitlement. So the idea that a White candidate can defeat a Black candidate in these current times seems unlikely.

Right now many county-wide officials are African-American as the electorate has decided.

This includes the county board president (Preckwinkle), state’s attorney (Harris to be), MWRD president (Steele) and Chicago city treasurer (Conyears-Ervin), plus 3 congressional seats.

If Kwame Raoul runs for U.S. Senator in 2026 the Democrats will slate a person of color for AG.

Two of 3 IL Supreme Court 1st District (Cook County only) justices are Black.

When justice Mary Jane Theis retires, her replacement will be Latino.

As for Chicago mayor, Paul Vallas’s 2023 loss signifies that there will never again be a White mayor, but at some future time a Latino will defeat a Black for the job. Latinos currently own two congressional seats and the Chicago city clerk.

However, with Spyropoulos, heiress to her late father’s oil fortune and ex-MWRD president, she is poised to beat Martinez.

Martinez was elected 269,578-216,180-199,154-113,885 in 2020 over three men, getting 33.7 percent.

Some White candidates remain in office.

Tom Dart and his Southwest Side 19th Ward cronies will never give up the sheriff’s office, with its 2,000 jobs.

Dart will stay as sheriff for another decade or more. In the cross-hairs in 2026 is assessor Fritz Kaegi, who narrowly beat Steele in 2022. Steele is running again.

As of Dec. 31 Harris had $154,824 cash-on-hand, and had raised $362,556 in the last half of 2023. That, plus CCDP money, is enough to win. Burke had $246,742 on-hand and raised $389,343. She will need to raise $600,000 during Jan.-Feb. Outlook: Harris wins 55/45.

After all, Harris is Preckwinkle’s candidate. As she said, they agree “ideologically.”

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